Thinking about sampling variability and replication: Confidence intervals beat p values

Host Institution:

La Trobe University

Title of Seminar:

Thinking about sampling variability and replication: Confidence intervals beat p values

Speaker's Name:

Emeritus Professor Geoff Cumming

Speaker's Institution:

Statistical Cognition Laboratory, School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University

Time and Date:

Friday 21 October, 2011, 12:00 PM AEDT

Seminar Abstract:

Understanding sampling variability is an important goal. A useful approach is to consider replication.  What information do inferential techniques give about replication? Confidence intervals (CIs) do well: A 95% CI is, approximately, an 83% prediction interval for the mean of a replication experiment.  A p value, however, gives almost no information about a replication result. CIs beat p values, although for very small N a CI may be misleading. I will present novel graphics and simulations, and emphasise cognition - how people read graphics and draw conclusions. There is more in my book: Understanding The New Statistics: Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Meta-Analysis, Routledge, 2012.  www.thenewstatistics.com

Seminar Convenor:

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AGR IT support:

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