AMSI AGR National Seminar: Expert, judgements and intelligence

12 September 2014, 2.00pm AEST

Speaker's Name:

Professor Mark Burgman

Speaker's Institution:

University of Melbourne

Title of Seminar:

AMSI AGR National Seminar: Expert, judgements and intelligence

Host Institution:

AMSI

Time and Date:

Friday 12 September, 2.00pm AEST

Seminar Abstract:

Expert judgements often are repudiated in science as subjective and unreliable. Unfortunately, often they are all we have. The growth in Bayesian inference has renewed interest in the estimation of priors. The notion of expert judgement is broader than that, encompassing judgement-based specification of model parameters, distributional shapes, functions and dependencies, as well as a host of other assumptions. This presentation argues that expert judgement should be afforded the same rigour as currently as afforded to data. It outlines approaches to acquiring, validating and improving expert opinions and subjective estimates. It finishes with an assessment of these methods applied to geopolitical intelligence gathering.

Speaker Bio:

 

Seminar Convenor:

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AGR IT support:

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